EXCLUSIVE: Stunning new data pulled from the Medicare database shows how each shot increases your risk of death

by Steve Kirsch, Substack [2-9-2023 published].

We can now see very clearly what is going on. Shot #1 bumps your risk of death by around 20%. Shot # 2 bumps it another 20%. Shot #3 bumps your risk another 10%.

Update 2/15/2023

For a normal vaccine, the curve in deaths per day should be a flat line. It is NOT supposed to rise over time. For other, more established vaccines, there is a peak on day 0, then the “curve” is simply a completely flat line with NO slope.

The healthy vaccinee effect is apparently non-existent for Medicare patients; we don't see it for other vaccines (NO DELAY at all: reaches flatline IMMEDIATELY).

The steady state level of the distributions below is lower than normal all-cause mortality which suggests that the vaccine is a fountain of youth for everyone who takes it for the first 300 days. Specifically, I learned after I wrote this article that there were 29,673,699 Medicare participants who took the shot in 2021. That group should have a steady state death rate of between 2.5% and 2.8% per year just from normal causes (2017 - 2019). Taking the lower number, the steady state death rate has to be at least 2,032 deaths per day which is the lowest pre-COVID. That minimum possible rate should happen immediately after the jab. If the jabs are working, we’ll see lower “bumps” due to COVID outbreaks than we normally would without the jabs. This is much easier to see when we restrict the vaccine dates to a specific quarter (the humps will move).

The vaccine is only reported to save COVID deaths, not save all-cause deaths.

So there is something wrong with the data and I’m still sorting that through. The slow rise over the first 14 days is a big mystery; we don’t see that for other vaccines given to the same age group in Medicare.

So take the data and the analysis below with a grain of salt.

I’ve left the article intact in the hopes that it can be useful to understanding what is going on.

Executive summary

I’m still gathering data from Medicare, but a consistent picture is emerging for Medicare participants under 80 years old:

1. Shot #1 increases your risk of death by around 20% with an exponential time constant of around 150 days.
2. Shot #2 increases your risk of death by an additional 20% with a time constant of around 100 days.
3. Shot #3 increases your risk of death by an additional 10% with a time constant of around 50 days.
4. Due to the limitations of the Medicare data (missing vaccination data on nearly half the records), it’s not clear whether the shots reduce your risk of death from COVID. We need data that the public health authorities refuse to provide. If the shots worked, they’d want to make this data public. Keeping the data under wraps suggests that the shots not only make you more likely to die from all causes, but they also make you more likely to die from COVID.

The data

Here’s the data. I’ll explain more in the next section.

About the data

This is Medicare death data for those under 80 years old pulled from all 50 states.

The graphs are deaths after vaccine shot #N by day. So an x-axis value of100 means you died 100 days after you got that shot # and the vertical axis is the count of deaths at that time distance from that shot number.

The charts count all people who were vaccinated with the specific shot number sometime in 2021.

The effects of COVID spikes are smoothed out here due to the time window of the vaccine shots being spread so there aren’t “peaks” due to COVID outbreaks.

Since most older people were given their first vaccines in Q1 of 2021, there is a small seasonal spike around 300 days after the shots because older people die more often in the winter. That spike may also be from the COVID death surge in Jan 2022.

Data source

Legal counsel has advised me not to release the data.

If you want to see the data, you should publicly call for the owners of the data to release it. There is no legal reason they can’t release it.

But they won’t ever do that because it would reveal the truth and embarrass too many people in government who called for these shots to be given but never wanted to see the data.

In Ohio, for example, the death records were public. Then COVID hit. Now you can’t get the death records.

Every honest member of the medical community should be calling for data transparency.

Yet, as of February 9, 2023, John Beaudoin and I have been, to my knowledge, the only people in the world publicly calling for data transparency.

My interpretation of the results

My interpretation of the data above is based not just on this data, but extensive analysis of the Medicare data that I’ve done that is not described here.

Here’s what I believe is happening:

1. In the first 20 days or so, we have a healthy vaccinee effect operating, i.e., they don’t inject people who they believe are about to die. That’s the big slope at the start with a short time constant of around 8 days. Death counts are also low because of a startup effect where if they inject you, and you are seriously injured, they’ll try to keep you alive before they give up and you’re officially dead. So after around 20 days, we’re at the “baseline” normal death rate.
2. The drug starts working on you making you more and more likely to die over time starting from when you are injected. For the first dose, it looks like a time constant of around 150 days with a final value of around 20% above baseline death rate (without the vaccine). For shot #2, it seems to be a shorter time constant (around 100 days), and an endpoint 20% higher. So for the two shots combined, you are raising your risk of death by around 40%. The third shot acts faster to raise your risk of dying, but the endpoint is only around 10% above your previous baseline. So after your third shot, if you are old, you’ve raised your risk of death by around 50%.
3. While these numbers seem impossibly high, consider that I know of a geriatric practice with 1,000 patients where the death rate was 11 deaths a year and in 2022, they had 39 deaths. They attribute all of the excess deaths to the vaccine. A funeral service in California that I recently talked to doubled his business in 2022. And many embalmers report 40% or more of their cases have these mystery clots. I know of a nursing home in Australia where the death rate went from 2% per year to over 20% in the 12 months after the vaccines rolled out. So I find it puzzling that the death numbers in the US appear to only be up by less than 20%.
   
4. The drop offs you see in the charts after 360 days is because the time window of the shots is 1 year and we only looked at deaths till the end of 2022. Thus, we simply run out of time. The graphs limit you to vaccination in 2021 meaning ONLY the first 365 days are going to be “flat.”
5. Pro-vaxers could argue these graphs by claiming, “Oh look, the vaccines save you from dying for a year and then they wear off.” I’ve explored that and it’s not true. COVID kills in waves and when we restrict the vax window we look at, we can see the COVID peaks on top of the graph. Whether or not those peaks might have been higher if the person wasn’t vaccinated is something we can see if we can get the full dataset of who was vaccinated and who wasn’t so we can compare the peaks of vaccinated people with the peaks of unvaccinated people. That will tell us if there is any benefit to the vaccines at all; I wouldn’t be surprised if the peaks are higher for the vaxxed than the unvaxxed.

Have you looked at the excess deaths in the US lately?

The fact that 2021 and 2022 were excess death years suggests our main intervention made things worse, not better. And the 2022 numbers are incomplete according to the CDC. This is very unusual for excess deaths to be up like this.

Usually, when you have a year with excess deaths, it is followed by a year of deficit deaths due to the depletion effect.

And we can see that COVID deaths have been very low since April 1, 2022:

This suggests something is at work that is causing excess deaths and it is not COVID. Hmmmm… wonder what it could be???? Hmmmm… gotta think about that one.

Summary

The shots increase your risk of death with every shot you take. The COVID vaccines aren’t safe for anyone.

It remains troubling to me why the authorities don’t release the data so everyone can see what is going on.

It is even more troubling that nobody in the mainstream medical community is calling for data transparency so that people will know the truth.

The only reason for keeping people in the dark about the COVID death/vax data is if the numbers would make the medical medical community look inept for supporting the vaccination program.

Mark my words: they will not be able to keep hiding the data.

When the data is finally set free, the entire medical community will be discredited, along with Congress, the White House, the mainstream media, high tech companies that continue to censor doctors trying to spread the truth, public health officials all over the world, and numerous State leaders, lawmakers, companies, universities, and organizations that required these vaccines in order to participate in society or keep a job.

World leaders should be listening to the people they are censoring and ignoring the people they are listening to.

About Steve Kirsch

I used to be a high tech serial entrepeneur before retiring at age 64.

I used to believe that the FDA, NIH, and CDC were honest organizations. I trusted them. I’m doubly-vaxed with Moderna as of March 29, 2021.

A month later, I started hearing stories from my friends who reported relatives who died or they themselves became permanently disabled. So I looked into it and the more I looked, the more appalled I became.

On May 25, 2021, I wrote a 250-page article for TrialSiteNews entitled “Should you get vaccinated?” A week later all the scientists on the CETF scientific advisory board resigned, most of them saying I was a menace to society and never to contact them again. I asked them if I made a mistake. They declined to answer. So much for open scientific debate to resolve differences. That’s gone.

On May 26, as luck would have it, I was on the weekly CCCA zoom call where Dr. Byram Bridle presented the results of his FOIA request to the Japanese government on the Pfizer mRNA vaccine submission. There, for the very first time, we learned that the vaccine doesn’t stay in your arm, but transits to all parts of your body to create inflammation and blood clotting everywhere. I was the one who tipped off Robert Malone.

On June 10, appeared on the famous Darkhorse podcast with Dr. Bret Weinstein and Dr. Robert Malone talking about what we had learned which was the launching point for both of us.

Why I moved to substack

As censorship has increased on Twitter, FB, and YouTube, the conversation about the safety and efficacy of vaccines has moved to Substack, Telegram, and Gab.

On my substack, I post timely articles about what is going on.

I have no conflicts of interest and I cannot be intimidated. They cannot take away my license to practice medicine because I’m not a doctor. I’m worse. I’m an engineer with two degrees from MIT. And I have a lot of smart friends.

Steve Kirsch's Bio [6-6-2022]

Since LinkedIn has banned me for life and removed all my biographic data, here's my bio. I'll update with more details as time permits.

Shorter version

Steve Kirsch is the Executive Director of the Vaccine Safety Research Foundation (vacsafety.org) and a popular Substack journalist who writes about the pandemic (stevekirsch.substack.com).

Prior to his work on COVID, Steve was a serial entrepreneur and has founded eight high-technology companies.

When the COVID pandemic hit, Steve took a leave of absence from his company to start the COVID-19 Early Treatment Fund which funded clinical trials using repurposed drugs to treat COVID.

Steve and his family were doubly jabbed in March 2021. A month later, Steve started hearing stories of death and injury from his friends.

He started speaking out publicly on May 25, 2021 with a 285 page article published on TrialSiteNews and an appearance on the Darkhorse podcast with Bret Weinstein and Robert Malone on June 10, 2021.

Steve was told if he kept speaking out against the vaccine he would have to leave his position at the startup he founded. So he left. He has been permanently banned on Twitter (twice), LinkedIn, Medium, and Wikipedia. His Wikipedia entry has been modified to make him look like an evil person.

No public health official will debate Steve or any of his colleagues, even though such debates would theoretically stop misinformation and end vaccine hesitancy.

He’s also invited fact checkers who challenge him to a debate. None have accepted.

He writes one of the most popular Substacks in the world on vaccine safety.

He has a BS and MS from MIT in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.

Longer version

Steve Kirsch is the Executive Director of the Vaccine Safety Research Foundation.

Steve has been at the forefront of tech innovation for more than three decades. He invented and owns a patent on an early version of the optical mouse, founded Infoseek, one of the first Internet search engines, and helped create FrameMaker, a popular publication tool used by technical writers.

Steve was a serial entrepreneur and has founded eight companies: Mouse Systems, FrameTechnology (acquired by Adobe), Infoseek (acquired by Disney), Propel, Abaca, OneID, Token, and M10.

When the COVID pandemic hit, Steve took a leave of absence from his company to start the COVID-19 Early Treatment Fund. He put in $1M of his own money and raised $5M more from private sources. The organization funded and/or assisted in the research of four drugs: fluvoxamine, hydroxychloroquine, interferon lambda, and camostat. All four drugs have been shown to be effective in treating COVID, but the FDA and NIH think none of them work.

Steve and his family were doubly jabbed in March 2021. A month later, Steve started hearing stories of death and injury from his friends. So he started looking at the data to see how that could be. He quickly identified obvious fraud in the Pfizer clinical trial and huge safety signals in the VAERS system that could only be caused by a very dangerous vaccine. Instantly, it all made sense. The evidence he found was consistent with an unsafe vaccine and a corrupt medical system. The more he learned, the more appalled he became.

He started speaking out publicly on May 25, 2021 with a 285 page article published on TrialSiteNews.

He appeared on the Darkhorse podcast with Bret Weinstein and Robert Malone. YouTube censored the video after 1M views and rave reviews. (1 hour version and full version) and demonetized his YouTube channel.

Steve was told if he kept speaking out against the vaccine he would have to leave his position at the startup he founded. So he left. He has been permanently banned on Twitter (twice), LinkedIn, Medium, and Wikipedia. His Wikipedia entry has been trashed to make him look like an evil person. They even removed the fact that he received a National Caring Award since this was inconsistent with positioning that the Wikipedia editors wanted to convey: that he was an evil person and a menace to society.

Steve started the Vaccine Safety Research Foundation which co-sponsors events such as Defeat the Mandates and other activities to help educate the public on the safety of the vaccines.

No public health official will debate Steve or any of his colleagues, even though such debates would theoretically stop misinformation and end vaccine hesitancy.

He’s also invited fact checkers who challenge him to a debate. None have accepted.

Steve has briefed only two public health officials who ignored everything he said. He’s never been invited to brief any corporate board or university Board of Trustees as none of them are interested in hearing the other side of the story.

He has a BS and MS from MIT.

Steve and his wife, Michele started a foundation which donates to a wide variety of charitable causes, and were subsequently named the 1999 Outstanding Philanthropists of the Year by the National Society of Fund Raising Executives. He is a 1997 Henry Crown Fellow of The Aspen Institute and a member of the Aspen Global Leadership Network.

He writes one of the most popular Substacks in the world on vaccine safety with over 500 articles. You can view some of his best non-Substack content here.

My resume from LinkedIn

Thanks to SignalHire which cached my LinkedIn entry before they permanently banned me, here is my work history.

Summary

I've founded 7 companies, 2 with billion dollar valuations. I'm currently involved in researching the safety of the COVID vaccines with 20 other scientists, doctors, and statisticians. What we've found is very troubling. You can see my recommendations for treating COVID, vaccine injury, and vaccine safety at www.skirsch.io. I love tackling really hard problems. My innovations have spanned a broad range: optical mouse, Internet search, desktop publishing, spam filtering, Internet acceleration, secure federated identity, open banking, and digital money. I'm a proponent of nuclear power to help solve the global warming problem. I was an Executive Producer of "Pandora's Promise." I helped rid the US of junk faxes (junkfax.org). Married 28 years; 3 daughters. I've been involved with computers for 50 years (since I was 10 years old). I've programmed in almost two dozen languages, and was lucky enough to work with the pioneers of the Internet while I was in junior high school. I shared an office with Jon Postel at UCLA (he wrote the email protocol we use today). I wrote the email program used by the Internet inventors at UCLA. Vint Cerf recommended I go to MIT. Charitable foundation: www.kirschfoundation.org The Computer Science Auditorium at MIT (Kirsch Auditorium) is named after me (but to be honest, a multi-million dollar gift influenced that decision). Interests: Making a the world a better place, improving the user experience in banking/payments, identity, cybersecurity, entrepreneurship, philanthropy, waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia, glaucoma, type 2 diabetes. An article I wrote on Quora, "Why is Elon Musk so successful?" is the #2 hit on Google and has nearly 1M views.

Skills:

• Agile Methodologies
• Apache
• Architecture
• Big Data
• Cloud Computing
• Computer Security
• Cryptography
• Databases
• Distributed Systems
• Encryption
• Enterprise Architecture
• Enterprise Software
• Entrepreneurship
• Git
• Go-to-market Strategy
• Hadoop
• High Availability
• Identity Management
• Java
• JavaScript
• Linux
• Messaging
• Mobile Applications
• Mobile Devices
• MySQL
• Network Security
• Open Source
• Perl
• Philanthropy
• PHP
• PostgreSQL
• Product Management
• Python
• REST
• SaaS
• Scalability
• Scrum
• Security
• Software Design
• Software Development
• Software Engineering
• Start-ups
• Strategic Partnerships
• System Architecture
• TCP/IP
• Unix
• Virtualization
• Web Applications
• Web Services
• XML